Montana farmers are worried about being whipsawed in a trade war as the United States trades tariffs on farm products with China, Canada and Mexico.
Wheat and lentil exports are likely to face tougher markets in the coming year as tariffs erode favorable trade terms in Canada and China, producers told Montana Free Press in mid-March.
The current trade war is in some ways similar to a 2018 tariff battle with China that pinched wheat values indirectly as displaced U.S. corn and soybeans negatively affected the demand for wheat. That year, federal subsidies to Montana farmers grew by $140 million to offset trade-related losses.
Montana ranks third among states for wheat production, with 5.2 million acres planted and at least $1 billion in sales in seven of the last 10 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Historically, about 80% of Montana wheat is exported, primarily to markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
Montana is also the top U.S. producer of lentils, with 720,000 acres planted in 2024 and $226 million in sales. Production values have tripled in the last decade, according to USDA. Canada has become a preferred buyer for lentil farmers along Montana’s Hi-Line.
But President Donald Trump’s trade war will be different from 2018, said Montana Farmers Union President Walt Schweitzer, in part because U.S. trade with China was permanently altered by the tariff fight seven years ago.
“China got busy and started building ports, railroads and distribution networks in our competitors’ backyard,” Schweitzer said. “They were helping build the infrastructure in Mexico, Brazil, Africa, Argentina, anywhere that was growing commodities that they needed to replace the U.S. market.”
Trade with China was complicated further by shipping challenges created by the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, which were also years of extreme drought in Montana.
“What happened is we lost our average market and so we had a lot of strong, stranded commodities with nomor home,” Schweitzer said. “And of course China had found other sources for corn and soybeans. Now, we’re really sitting on a surplus we shouldn’t have.”
Tariffs are a nuanced issue for the farmers union, Schweitzer said. The group’s national organization has long opposed unbridled free trade, arguing that protections are needed for United States producers. The National Farmers Union sided with Trump in 2017 when the president in his first term withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation trade grup created by the U.S. to serve as a counterbalance to China’s increasing influence in Asian commerce.